seguindo a dica de @don_crissti eu habilitei com sucesso o numlock na tela de login do gdm assim:
sudo su #become root
su gdm -s /bin/sh #become gdm user with a shell
#do the work i don't 100% understand
export $(dbus-launcher)
GSETTINGS_BACKEND=dconf gsettings set org.gnome.settings-daemon.peripherals.keyboard numlock-state on
exit #drop back to root user
systemctl restart gdm #restart gdm