Você pode definir um pré-requisito somente de pedido sobre o alvo .input_modified , isto realiza o teste se modificado ,
output_file: .input_url source_file
wc -l source_file > $@
source_file: .input_url
wget -q -O $@ --no-use-server-timestamps 'cat .input_url'
.input_url: .input_modified
wget -q -O - $(DOWNLOAD_URL) | \
sed -n '1,/current version/d;\
/Previous versions/,$$d;
s/.*href="\([^"]*\):,*/\1/p' > $@
lastmod -t $@ $(DOWNLOAD_URL)
.input_modified: | if_modified_test # as order-only-prerequisite
.PHONY: if_modified_test # test it
if_modified_test:
lastmod -t .input_modified $(DOWNLOAD_URL)